MIBA 2025: the twin-transition challenge in the construction sector

The building sector is facing challenging scenarios. 75% of the Italian building stock is energy inefficient (Source: Enea). Fiera Milano, with MIBA 2025, will once again give voice to the markets and professionals called upon to achieve the ecological and digital transition of the built environment. There will be renewed contemporaneity and synergies between GEE-Global Elevator Exhibition, the horizontal and vertical mobility exhibition; MADE expo, the leading event for the building sector; SMART BUILDING EXPO, the technological integration event and SICUREZZA, the reference exhibition for security&fire, at Fiera Milano in November 2025. The MIBA Observatory by the Milan Polytechnic, scientific partner of the event, will also be launched.

MIBA also announces the creation of the event’s first spin-off on Italian territory: MIBA Levante is born, in Bari in 2026.

An image taken during the presentation of MIBA 2025

The construction industry and all sectors involved in various degrees in the new construction, redevelopment and maintenance of buildings are now facing an epoch-making challenge, that of twin-transition (ecological and digital) and the reduction of emissions.

The time is ripe and, by now, tight. The Green Homes Directive requires new buildings to go from ‘near-zero energy’ to ‘zero emissions’ by 2030, while old buildings will have to decisively reduce consumption and emissions in parallel. Requalifying by getting to grips with the envelope, systems, and technologies becomes a requirement, but also a unique development driver for all sectors, which will find their occasion for discussion at MIBA-Milan International Building Alliance 2025, the international hub of reference for the design, construction, and requalification of buildings and cities.

GEE – Global Elevator Exhibition, a project dedicated to horizontal and vertical mobility, MADE Expo, the leading international event for innovative and sustainable solutions for buildings and envelopes (which will last an extra day and will close on 22 November), SBE – SMART BUILDING EXPO, the reference event for home and building automation and technological integration, and SICUREZZA, the leading event in Italy and one of the most important in Europe for security&fire, will all be held at Fiera Milano (Rho) from 19 to 21 November 2025.

THE SCENARIO

As is well known, the construction sector has gone through a significant transformation phase after the pandemic. According to the anticipations of the Conjunctural and Forecasting Report by CRESME – which will support Fiera Milano with its expertise in highlighting market trends – in 2024 investments are expected to drop by 4.2% compared to the previous year, which is less than forecast, while the downturn will continue in 2025 (-6.2%). After the boom years 2021-2023, the construction market is experiencing a contraction due to the exhaustion of the ‘superbonus’ boost, while it is supported by spending on public works, which is expected to grow by 13.7% in 2024. Despite the contraction, the construction market seems to have made a leap in scale compared to its pre-pandemic dimensions, so much so that the value of production in 2025 at constant values will be 20% higher than the levels reached in 2019.

PERSPECTIVES. THE MIBA OBSERVATORY IS BORN

In order to provide concrete support to the market and professionals in the sector, Fiera Milano has commissioned the Politecnico di Milano, which from this edition is MIBA’s scientific partner, to create an Observatory, to analyse scenarios and trends, with the aim of focusing on key development themes. The Observatory’s first study, presented today, focuses on the green house directive and the potential impact on the various sectors represented by MIBA: building envelope materials, plant engineering, energy and technologies.

In particular, considering that it is precisely energy requalification together with building renovation/maintenance that represent the driving factor of the construction sector, it is clear that the immediate future of the sector is inseparably linked to the technical, economic and regulatory measures that will be applied to guarantee not only its stabilisation, but above all its growth.

In this sense, the Renovation Wave, the European Commission’s strategy aiming at improving the efficiency of the building stock (today responsible for a total of 40% of emissions and almost 50% of energy consumption), can be the main stimulus for the redevelopment of buildings in order to reduce their energy-environmental impact and increase their resilience to climate change. The ultimate goal is to have buildings and cities that meet modern standards of sustainability, efficiency, comfort, functionality, safety and accessibility.

This is an extremely challenging time for building professionals: today 75% of the building stock is energy inefficient and more than 85% of existing buildings will probably still be in use in 2050.

An enormous heritage whose redevelopment, once the Superbonus era is over and the PNRR has been passed, can represent the real lever for holding, but also for market growth and development.

While waiting for the national implementation decrees of the so-called Case Green Directive (fourth update of the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive, i.e. EPBD IV) to be defined, the MIBA Observatory, curated by the Department of Architecture and Construction Engineering of the Built Environment of the Politecnico di Milano, has constructed 3 hypothetical scenarios that envisage for the period 2025-2035 different levels of investment and savings that can be achieved.

The three possible scenarios – the first conservative (Business As Usual – BAU), the second conforming to the objectives imposed by the EPBD (Policy Driven) and the third ambitious (Ambitious), assume different levels of expenditure in energy refurbishment, in addition to the fixed quota of annual investments for renovation/maintenance, which are supposed to be carried out independently of the transposition of the Directive and remain stable at pre-Superbonus levels.

1 – In the Business-As-Usual scenario a mild application of the EBPD principles is envisaged, which will simply counteract the market contraction that would occur in the coming years in the absence of precise regulatory requirements at EU level. Therefore, a trend of investments in energy requalification similar to that obtained in the past through the Ecobonus is expected, amounting to approximately 3,700 M€/year for the residential sector, resulting in additional energy savings (compared to the quota reached in 2024) of approximately 15,500 GWh/year by 2035. This share, added to the 30,000 GWh/year achieved at the end of 2024 compared to 2020, will result in savings to 2035 equal to 65% of what is required by the EPBD.

Furthermore, considering the investments expected for the energy requalification of non-residential buildings, amounting to 700 M€/year (which will result in savings of 2,800 GWh/year by 2035) and the average investments expected for conventional renovation/maintenance works (i.e. not specifically aimed at energy efficiency), a total turnover of approximately 84,000 M€/year is estimated.

2 – In the Policy-Driven scenario it is instead assumed that the market evolution is actually driven by an early and effective implementation of the EPBD. For the residential sector, it is possible to estimate that the additional share (again compared to 2024) of energy savings will reach at least 40,000 GWh/year by 2035. This compares with an average investment over the period 2025-2035 in energy refurbishment of approximately 10,000 M€/year. Added to this are the investments required to reach the savings target in the non-residential sector (estimated at approximately 22,000 GWh/year to 2035), which amount to approximately 5,500 M€/year. The total on the entire existing building stock, including conventional renovations/maintenance, will therefore be 95,500 M€/year, which is 13% higher than in the BAU scenario.

3 – In the third scenario, Ambitious, which is the most challenging of the 3 hypotheses, it is assumed that, by taking full advantage of the opportunities offered by the Directive, it will be possible to achieve a more ambitious rate of upgrading than the minimum required by the EPBD. This result is likely to be possible through the co-presence of several factors, such as a high market awareness of energy-environmental issues (and also of the related economic effects), greater state incentives, a clear and simplified regulatory framework, as well as the absence of speculative phenomena that could increase costs. In this scenario, it is expected that an average investment of approximately 14,500 M€/year will be mobilised in the residential sector (which will generate savings of 58,000 GWh/year by 2035) and a further 8,000 M€/year in the non-residential sector (for savings of 33,000 GWh/year by 2035). Finally, including conventional renovation/maintenance it is therefore possible to estimate a total turnover on the existing building stock of 102,500 M€/year, corresponding to an increase of about 22% compared to the BAU scenario.

THE MIBA PROJECT

MIBA-Milan International Building Alliance is set in this evolving context. With its transversal offer it will provide a 360° overview of materials, products, technologies, processes and solutions involved in the realisation of buildings and cities with low environmental impact, smart, safe and accessible.

At a time when European and national standards – and consequently companies’ investments – are moving towards urban redevelopment as a prerequisite for achieving sustainability and comfort objectives that are useful for the evolution of built-up areas, MIBA will be looking at the building as the fulcrum of several dimensions

Design, seen as an essential part of the rebirth of a building and as a fundamental moment of encounter between different professionals, united by the single objective of conceiving, planning and developing the architectural and functional idea of a structure, translating needs and visions into a concrete and feasible project.

Sustainability, seen in its three meanings (social, economic and environmental) which constitutes the cardinal requirement for the redevelopment of a building and is expressed in its accessibility, in the use of eco-friendly materials, in bioclimatic design and in the activation of smart technologies for monitoring and managing the energy consumed.

Security, which encompasses all those technologies and measures that enable the inhabitants for whom the building is intended to live in comfort on a daily basis. But also security and data management, fundamental for the operational continuity of a smart and connected building
Digitalisation, an essential tool in both the design and management of the building in all its functions. It is through it that comfort, safety and sustainability find concrete

These four pillars will be the reference points for the events that will animate MIBA.

THE ROLE OF EXPERTISE

MIBA will offer industry professionals a qualified and highly innovative showcase of materials, products, solutions capable of creating efficient, sustainable, safe, accessible buildings.

To enrich the offer, a rich proposal of conventions, seminars and workshops declined according to the three guidelines already identified in the last edition: sustainability, innovation and regulations. Alongside transversal events, in fact, each event will provide vertical appointments for technicians and professionals in the sector, guaranteeing complete coverage of all the hottest topics in the building design, construction and management market.

MIBA DOES NOT STOP IN MILAN: MIBA LEVANTE IS BORN

With the aim of reaching out to the market and meeting operators directly on their territory, Fiera Milano is working on the realisation of a spin-off of MIBA to be held in Bari in November 2026.

MIBA Levante will therefore alternate with the Milan event, which takes place in odd-numbered years. It is an appointment designed to create a trait-d’union between the two editions of MIBA, but also to offer an opportunity for professionals from Southern Italy to update and compare notes.