Euroconstruct predicted a GDP growth of 1.9% for 2015 in the 19 countries, up from 1.8% forecasted in summer (Warsaw)1. Both in 2016 and 2017, a 2% GDP growth is estimated (compared to 2% and 1.7% respectively forecasted in Warsaw). For 2018, a 1.9% hike is expected in GDP in the Euroconstruct region. In 2015, no country is set to have registered a GDP contraction, while in 2014 Italy and Finland saw a drop in GDP. Euroconstruct predicted a GDP growth of 1.9% for 2015 in the 19 countries, up from 1.8% forecasted in summer (Warsaw)1. Both in 2016 and 2017, a 2% GDP growth is estimated (compared to 2% and 1.7% respectively forecasted in Warsaw). For 2018, a 1.9% hike is expected in GDP in the Euroconstruct region. In 2015, no country is set to have registered a GDP contraction, while in 2014 Italy and Finland saw a drop in GDP. At the 80th Euroconstruct Conference in Budapest in December, the growth rate of total construction output prognosticated for 2015 has been revised downwards from 1.9% (Warsaw) to 1.6%. For 2016, a record growth rate of 3% is forecasted now (as opposed to 2.4% in Warsaw) and for 2017 there is no big revision: 2.7% is projected (over 2.6% in Warsaw). As to the year 2018, total construction output in the Euroconstruct region is estimated to register a growth of 2%.The estimated value of the construction output amounts to EUR 1412bln in 2016 and 1450bln in 2017, the level of construction activity should reach EUR 1478bln by 2018. Ten years ago, in 2007, total construction output of the Euroconstruct countries was EUR 1532bln.In the cyclical development of construction activity, all 19 Euroconstruct countries (EC-19) are in an upturn position in the forecast period of 2016-2018. In 2015, Ireland (+10.6%), Slovakia (+10.3%), Czech Republic (+7.4%), Netherlands (+6%) are especially booming. In 2016-2018, Poland and Ireland are to register a 7%-9% growth yearly in total construction output. Compared to the similar table of the Warsaw Euroconstruct Conference (Summer 2015), construction output in 2016 will be more positive than predicted. Starting from the deepest 2012 and 2013 years, construction output growth of 2016 seems to be very positive, regarding all 19 countries of Euroconstruct.

1. DEVELOPMENT OF MAIN SEGMENTS

The biggest influencing factor in residential construction is the massive influx of migrants arriving in Western European countries such as Germany, the Netherlands, and to Nordic countries of Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. This will likely have an impact on housing, creating more need for housing, either new construction or renting or purchasing existing homes. In 2015, the share of repair, renovation and maintenance has reached 60% of the total residential market.As far as non-residential construction performance is concerned, in 2016 without exception, all countries are optimistic about their non-residential market, and only two countries await minimal setbacks for the year after. The countries with predicted negative growth rates in new non-residential construction are Finland and Sweden.Civil engineering continues to grow this year; the total growth of 3.3% is estimated. In 2015 all Central-Eastern European countries have experienced significant growth as they tried to absorb all available EU funds from the previous programming period.Poland, the seventh biggest market in 2015 in civil engineering performance, is projected to accelerate the growth and a double-digit growth is expected each year until 2018. Civil engineering output will decrease by 0.6% to 2.7% in 2016, but has a promising forecast for 2017, 4.2% growth, which will be followed by a further 2.8% growth in 2018.

2. BIGGEST GROWTH CONTRIBUTORS

Contribution considers market size and the changes together. What seems particular in 2016 is that all the six biggest markets of Europe – Germany, UK, France, Italy, Spain, Poland – are among the largest positive contributors to growth, which is something that has not happened for years. From the total 3% predicted growth for 2016, six countries are contributing by 2.3 percentage points. In other words, out of the total 3% expansion of the market (estimated to be EUR 40bln) 75% will be produced by these countries, which is around EUR 30bln.

By Buildecon / Euroconstruct